有报道称,朝鲜于当地时间12日7时55分(北京时间6时55分)从位于平安北道的军事基地试射一枚弹道导弹。据韩国军方消息,导弹飞行约500公里后落入日本海。日本方面称导弹没有落入日本的专属经济区。
巴殿君认为,朝鲜并未如元旦致辞中所说的那样进行洲际导弹的试射,而是试射了中程导弹,说明朝鲜并不想激怒美国。另外,特朗普在美国时间11日晚与日本首相安倍晋三就朝鲜试射导弹举行的记者会上也没有讲出非常过火的话。因此,美朝双方都为今后如何开展对话,或者说接触留有一个空间。
专家指出,以施压促对话是朝鲜的基本打算。朝鲜此次试射导弹显然是对美日明确指向自身的不满,提醒美国不要忽视朝鲜的存在。
专家认为,朝鲜在这个时间点试射导弹可能有以下几个考量,首先是对特朗普选举前后对解决朝鲜问题态度的变化,其中一个就是美国防长马蒂斯访问韩日对加快萨德系统部署的态度,并明确表示指向朝鲜;其次是对美日韩三方合作的加强,并把日本作为美国在东亚的主要支柱,日韩对朝鲜的强硬使朝鲜认为需要对美日韩进行敲打。
巴殿君强调,朝鲜试射的中程导弹不可能对美国造成威胁,而中程导弹技术对朝鲜而言可以说已经基本掌握,所以可以认为这次发射基本上是一个象征性和示威性的举动,而不是一个突破性的举动。
专家称,特朗普并没有更高声调的谴责朝鲜,只是附和表示“美国将百分之百与日本站在一起”。美日在表述上还是有一定的距离。
巴殿君最后总结道,美国拉开与日韩在朝鲜问题上的距离,可能在对朝鲜试射导弹的战略意图进行判断。美朝之间都在试探对方的战略意图,也都没有直接刺激对方,为下一步可能开展朝美对话或接触留下可能性。
© REUTERS / KCNANorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
© REUTERS / KCNAA view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
A view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
© REUTERS / KCNANorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
© REUTERS / KCNA / 资料图片 /ArchiveA view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
A view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
A view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
A view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.